Global Weirding for a Hot n Heating Planet

 

Global Weirding for a Hot n Heating Planet

Q: Write an article that addresses these questions/topics... What do you call it when the hottest day recorded in centuries is exceeded by… the hottest day. When many months each year meet or exceed the hottest month in human history? When was a month of lower than "average" temperatures, and what do you call it when the extremes, planet-wide, are only on the hot side?

Gemini Advanced (2024, July)

Earth's Fever Spike: Redefining 'Normal' in a Warming World

In a stark reminder of the accelerating climate crisis, Earth has recently experienced a series of alarming temperature records.

The hottest day in recorded history has been surpassed multiple times within a matter of weeks. Months once considered exceptionally hot are now commonplace, raising questions about what constitutes "normal" in a rapidly changing climate.  

Environment wins with reduced human activity

There's a silver lining, of sorts, in the reduced human activity related to the coronavirus shutdown. Nice visuals from space and discussion here:

In The Midst Of A Tragic Human Pandemic, The Environment Is Flourishing

https://truththeory.com/2020/03/19/in-the-midst-of-a-tragic-human-pandemic-the-environment-is-flourishing/

Move from lots of pollution to a beautiful clean sky. Very ugly way to get there, but the earth is getting a breather from the humans torturing the land and sky.

Amazon? Lungs of the world? Sinking feeling?

I got into this debate, related to Global Warming, on the "Amazon is sometimes referred to as the Lungs of the world."
Here's a very readable discussion in Newsweek on how much oxygen comes from the Amazon: https://www.newsweek.com/how-much-oxygen-amazon-rain-forest-1456274
Much like Global Freezing, I don't know that I have ever heard/seen an actual scientist say this, but the Lungs of the World is still a pretty well circulated myth. Some times it says 20% of the oxygen in the world is produced by the Amazon Rain Forest. Actually, this is probably true, however the rainforest consumes most of the oxygen it produces. Plants (decomposition) consume it, animals in the forest, not so much so. Oxygen in the atmosphere is about 21% (20.95%, actually). And that's not going to change much, even if the Amazon was burned to the ground... Carbon Dioxide (CO2) on the other hand, that's not so pretty.
There's massive amounts of carbon stored in the trees and peat. That would all get moved from a stored state into the active environment (air and ocean). Same as chopping down 500 year-old native trees and burning them without replanting the same. Same as digging up coal that took 500m years to form and burning it (except that there's no way to return the coal in coal back to the sync from whence it came).
So, when the amazon is converted to grassland and ranching, the original carbon store is released into the atmosphere and the ability to store carbon (sync) is broken. Yes, grass is green, but it does a horrible job related to carbon sequestering compared to trees. Plus cows have a habit of belching and farting that releases a wicked amount of methane (32 to 64 times as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2).
Of course, there horrific impact on the environment. You could easily call this a crime against humanity and against the environment when native populations are killed and displaced and the rainforest with all it inhabitants of plants and animals are killed and destroyed forever.
National Geographic talks about the same issue, but follows on to discuss biodiversity: Why the Amazon doesn’t really produce 20% of the world’s oxygen: Of the many important reasons to worry about the thousands of fires raging in the world’s largest rainforest, oxygen supply is not one of them.

Those Sneaky Climate Alarmists

A video came cycling around to me that provided gleeful evidence that the Climate Alarmists use sneaky methods to distort the information and make everyone shake in their boots because the world will end in less than 12 years. This guy, Tony Heller (aka Steven Goddard), even went so far as to create a tool to find the best point in any trend graph for best (mis)representing data.
As with many such reports, I would always like to find myself wrong, and to discover that I've become a Climate Alarmist for nothing. All that lost sleep, spending time developing business ideas and models that are both sustainable, politically viable, and profitable.
Sadly, Heller is simply a fraud. He used his own tool to make fun of activists, and to distract people from facts. Here is a great video by Mallan Baker that takes on a couple of Heller's debunk graphs to debunks the junk.
Why is Heller talking Continental US and pointing at specific US cities when we are talking GLOBAL warming. The US had some wicked hot years during the Dust Bowl, for example.

Wikipedia can be the best overview source for highly active and rapidly updated pages like these: Global Warming, Climate Change, Sustainability in general, and Climate Change Denial.
By now you know that everyone knows that there's global warming. Thermometers tend not to lie.
But I keep finding people who have been convinced that warming is not very much, or that it is a natural cycle to earth, or that humans are only responsible for a fraction of the warming we are experiencing.
Even the oil companies now acknowledge that there's global warming, but their business model is not conducive to any of the logical approaches to deal with the issue aggressively. In fact, according to internal documents, the oil companies have know for half a century that global warming was a byproduct of their product and hidden this from the public in order to protect their business-as-usual profits.

With current technology, we can easily measure the energy that comes from the sun, and the amount that is reflected back into space. All evidence shows global warming is happening, and at an accelerating pace. You can use lots of good data sources related to land, ocean, air, ice coverage, etc. Statistically, solar flares, volcanoes, El Nino and other major factors can be isolated; warming can easily be primarily attributed to human factors.

We don't have time to debunk the deniers, people and lobbyists who are paid by deep fossil interests. We need to go about becoming more sustainable, like as if our collective lives depend on it. Business-as-usual (oil, gas, coal) is unsustainable. Being unsustainable is something that must change, sooner or later. Being unsustainable has a way of becoming more and more expensive, and coming to an ungraceful end.

Fortunately, we will actually save money (i.e., more profits) from doing smart and sustainable things. Solar and Wind are now far cheaper than fossil fuels in most locations (even when combined with battery). Renewable energy is especially cheaper when considering all the externality costs of fossil fuels (pollution, health, national security).

Energy efficiency offers a perpetuity of savings. The greenest gallon of gas is the one never pumped, refined, shipped and burned. The greenest electricity is the negawatt. We also like Teleworking, the greenest commute is zero-distance which consumes no time.

Let's all start with those things that can be done immediately (within weeks or a few months) and those that offer a perpetuity of savings. We need to start putting the magic of compounding to our advantage, not toward more non-sustainable practices.

< * Notes & References * >
Wikipedia is a great source on Climate Change. Start with the Global Warming Book.
An excellent source for fact/fiction/myth is: SkepticalScience.com (I've never seen anything there that was not supported with sources and provable with current data.)

The log entry for Baker video:
A few days ago, noted Climate Change commentator Tony Heller released a new video with some killer facts that completely exposes the conspiracy over climate change. Or does it? Let’s discuss. The Mallen Baker Show is aimed at all people who see themselves as change makers, with commentary on issues and change movements with a particular focus on climate change and environment, social issues, free speech and corporate social responsibility.
References in this video:
Tony Heller’s original video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455K...
The National Climate Assessment Report https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/down...
Extreme heat and cold graphs https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicator...
Wildfires analysis https://andthentheresphysics.wordpres...
Interview with Dr Ottmar Endenhofer, IPCC (in German) https://www.nzz.ch/klimapolitik_verte... Integrated sea ice graph https://web.archive.org/web/201905241...
Piecing together the arctic sea ice history https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-pos...

What history suggests about +3 to +4 degrees in sea level rise!

Study of ancient caves in Europe show how high sea levels should rise when temps go up 3 or 4 degree C.
You can figure about 20 to 60 feet (7 to 20 meters).
A study published in Nature looks at what water levels might look like in a +3 world.
The article is summed up in Phys.org.... Scientists discover evidence for past high-level sea rise.
Of course, you can always model the global warming on earth to see where we land with +2 or more degrees.
A scary study just out finds that ice sheets are melting from below at between 10 and 200 times faster than originally expected!

Internet will be underwater sooner than you might think

Found this on the Weather Channel, where it discusses a study that discusses the impacts on rising oceans on... The Internet.
It makes sense. Population centers are, what, 80% within a few miles of oceans. All the phone and Inet cables would run along roads through population areas...
Business Insider discusses so called Sunny Day Flooding from high tied and kind tide.
As the sea levels rise there will be more flooding. Flooding will start to hit lots of underground cables (including Internet cables) that are water resistant, but not waterproof.

With all the analysis of Global Warming, most of the scenarios assume that we take some action to avoid the worst cases. Also, there had been expectations for 20-30 years that we would start to run out (or at least low) on the fossil fuels, and thereby increase costs from shortages would result in "conservation" efforts. But Fracking and horizontal drilling has changed all that. Ten years ago, noone, not even the oil baron Boone Pickens, could expect that the world would reach 100m barrels of oil per day. It was not conceivable. But we have made it. Happily burning away, even with generally more fuel-efficient vehicles.

But the Business as Usual (BAU) models that were considered the absolute worst case in climate models, seems to be where we find ourselves. The general thinking was that we probably had about another 50 years before big problems from global warming come home to roost. Well, this study figures otherwise. Within 10-15 years these problems, and the associated plethora of costs, should start showing up with a vengeance.

The water issues will be massive and devastating. Salt water intrusion will become really expensive. Imagine entire cities moving from lots of fresh water and fresh water wells, to no fresh water. Desalinization is obviously possible, but requires lots of energy, plus massive amounts of plant and infrastructure.

And, we have not even begun to talk about the devastating impacts of hurricanes when the sea levels are a couple more feet above "normal".

No pretty pictures on the waterfront here!

Time to DrawDown and Look at All the Sky, not just Half

In the US, we often characterize women hitting the Glass Ceiling where men are in the highest positions of companies – executives and board rooms. Interestingly, men don’t see much of a glass ceiling, maybe because they are usually upstairs and not looking down. Old white men may be complicit and complacent in women knocking at the other side of the glass, but world-wide the imperative to give women respect and opportunity is critical, with profound implications for the world population and sustainable economic development. It’s a human and a humanity issue for everyone everywhere.

Let’s talk about Drawdown and Half the Sky (Wikipedia contributors, 2018). Both are bestselling books and global initiatives.

Everyone should be familiar with each of these.

Half the Sky is a bestselling book by Kristof and WuDunn (2009), a movie, and an activist movement. See Half the Sky movement: http://www.halftheskymovement.org/

Women are not allowed to do many things in many countries. The limitations on women in many cases mean that only half of the human resources in a country/area are utilized. It's a lot like seeing only half of the sky!

Women are often not encouraged to go to school. In many cultures girls are expected to drop out of school very early, say age 11 to 13, so they can get married and/or work. (Or worse, funneled into sex slavery.) Encouraging women to stay in school longer solve many problems simultaneously. At an older age, with education, they are better able to do family planning and more productive work. This is key to population control. Educating women is key to reaching a global population of 9B or less, instead of 11B or more.

In terms of economic development, a better use of women resources is a critical asset to the work economy. In fact, women are absolutely critical to sustainability efforts: lower population, higher GDP, higher per capita GDP, and reduced environmental impacts on the planet.

There's an effort call DrawDown (www.DrawDown.org) that looks for the best initiatives, using the current technology that will make the biggest difference in CO2 emissions and global warming. Groups use the best, peer-reviewed, information available to analyze each initiative. Initiatives are evaluated on the emissions savings as well as the actual cost saving on a world-wide bases. When taken together, two women's initiatives, ranked #6 and #7, would move up to #1 position. The two categories are: educating women and family planning.

Note that the three women/girl initiatives are ranked 6, 7 and 62; however, combined, they represent arguably the best single initative to address in terms of impact on global warming reduction. And, oh, by the way, they will contribute massively to world GDP and assist dramatically with cost savings compared to business as usual.

The book Drawdown and the web site Drawdown.org are edited by Paul Hawken (2017).

The first table shows the summary by sector the top 80 Drawdown initiatives. These initiatives are all things that we should do, no matter how aggressively you think our action toward Global Warming might be. It would be simply irresponsible not to address these issues. Note that an initiative related to utilities is ranked 77 but has 3 parts; therefore, there the top 80 lists is actually 82 items (see the Top 80 list below).

We need to be more proactively regarding women and girl’s rights; or, we could continue to see only half the sky.

DrawDown Initiatives for Reducing Greenhouse Emissions (CO2e)
(Including Net Costs to Implement and Projected Savings)
Summary by Sectors of the top 80 Initiatives
Sector	Initatives	CO2e GT Reduction	Net Costs (US$B)	Savings (US$B)
Buildings and Cities	15	55	4,927	17,906
Electricity Generation	20	246	4,896	21,447
Food	17	322	777	10,017
Land Use	9	150	131	1,199
Materials	7	112	1,125	1,040
Transport	11	46	17,753	22,666
Women and Girls	3	121	-	88
TOTAL	82	1,051	29,609	74,362
Source: Paul Hawken (Ed.), 2017, retrieved from www.DrawDown.org.
* Note. Energy Storage and Grid are ranked 77, but represent 3 options, so 82 entries are in this list.

See the top 80 table below.

References

Kristof, N., & WuDunn, S. (2009). Half the sky: Turning oppression into opportunity for women worldwide. New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf.

Hawken, P. (2017). Drawdown: The most comprehensive plan every proposed to reverse global warming. (P. Hawken, Ed.). New York, NY: Penguin Books.

Wikipedia contributors. (2018, April 9). Half the Sky. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 15:55, April 10, 2018, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Half_the_Sky&oldid=835610476

DrawDown Initiatives for Reducing Greenhouse Emissions (CO2e)
(Including Net Costs to Implement and Projected Savings)
			Total CO2e (GT)
			Atmospheric	Net Costs	Savings
Rank	Solution	Sector	reduction	US $B	US $B
1	Refrigerant Management	Materials	89.74	N/A	($902.77)
2	Wind Turbines (Onshore)	Electricity Generation	84.6	$1,225.37	$7,425.00
3	Reduced Food Waste	Food	70.53	N/A	N/A
4	Plant-Rich Diet	Food	66.11	N/A	N/A
5	Tropical Forests	Land Use	61.23	N/A	N/A
6	Educating Girls	Women and Girls	59.6	N/A	N/A
7	Family Planning	Women and Girls	59.6	N/A	N/A
8	Solar Farms	Electricity Generation	36.9	($80.60)	$5,023.84
9	Silvopasture	Food	31.19	$41.59	$699.37
10	Rooftop Solar	Electricity Generation	24.6	$453.14	$3,457.63
11	Regenerative Agriculture	Food	23.15	$57.22	$1,928.10
12	Temperate Forests	Land Use	22.61	N/A	N/A
13	Peatlands	Land Use	21.57	N/A	N/A
14	Tropical Staple Trees	Food	20.19	$120.07	$626.97
15	Afforestation	Land Use	18.06	$29.44	$392.33
16	Conservation Agriculture	Food	17.35	$37.53	$2,119.07
17	Tree Intercropping	Food	17.2	$146.99	$22.10
18	Geothermal	Electricity Generation	16.6	($155.48)	$1,024.34
19	Managed Grazing	Food	16.34	$50.48	$735.27
20	Nuclear	Electricity Generation	16.09	$0.88	$1,713.40
21	Clean Cookstoves	Food	15.81	$72.16	$166.28
22	Wind Turbines (Offshore)	Electricity Generation	14.1	$545.30	$762.50
23	Farmland Restoration	Food	14.08	$72.24	$1,342.47
24	Improved Rice Cultivation	Food	11.34	N/A	$519.06
25	Concentrated Solar	Electricity Generation	10.9	$1,319.70	$413.85
26	Electric Vehicles	Transport	10.8	$14,148.00	$9,726.40
27	District Heating	Buildings and Cities	9.38	$457.10	$3,543.50
28	Multistrata Agroforestry	Food	9.28	$26.76	$709.75
29	Wave and Tidal	Electricity Generation	9.2	$411.84	($1,004.70)
30	Methane Digesters (Large)	Electricity Generation	8.4	$201.41	$148.83
31	Insulation	Buildings and Cities	8.27	$3,655.92	$2,513.33
32	Ships	Transport	7.87	$915.93	$424.38
33	LED Lighting (Household)	Buildings and Cities	7.81	$323.52	$1,729.54
34	Biomass	Electricity Generation	7.5	$402.31	$519.35
35	Bamboo	Land Use	7.22	$23.79	$264.80
36	Alternative Cement	Materials	6.69	($273.90)	N/A
37	Mass Transit	Transport	6.57	N/A	$2,379.73
38	Forest Protection	Land Use	6.2	N/A	N/A
39	Indigenous Peoples’ Land Management	Land Use	6.19	N/A	N/A
40	Trucks	Transport	6.18	$543.54	$2,781.63
41	Solar Water	Electricity Generation	6.08	$2.99	$773.65
42	Heat Pumps	Buildings and Cities	5.2	$118.71	$1,546.66
43	Airplanes	Transport	5.05	$662.42	$3,187.80
44	LED Lighting (Commercial)	Buildings and Cities	5.04	($205.05)	$1,089.63
45	Building Automation	Buildings and Cities	4.62	$68.12	$880.55
46	Water Saving - Home	Materials	4.61	$72.44	$1,800.12
47	Bioplastic	Materials	4.3	$19.15	N/A
48	In-Stream Hydro	Electricity Generation	4	$202.53	$568.36
49	Cars	Transport	4	($598.69)	$1,761.72
50	Cogeneration	Electricity Generation	3.97	$279.25	$566.93
51	Perennial Biomass	Land Use	3.33	$77.94	$541.89
52	Coastal Wetlands	Land Use	3.19	N/A	N/A
53	System of Rice Intensification	Food	3.13	N/A	$677.83
54	Walkable Cities	Buildings and Cities	2.92	N/A	$3,278.24
55	Household Recycling	Materials	2.77	$366.92	$71.13
56	Industrial Recycling	Materials	2.77	$366.92	$71.13
57	Smart Thermostats	Buildings and Cities	2.62	$74.16	$640.10
58	Landfill Methane	Buildings and Cities	2.5	($1.82)	$67.57
59	Bike Infrastructure	Buildings and Cities	2.31	($2,026.97)	$400.47
60	Composting	Food	2.28	($63.72)	($60.82)
61	Smart Glass	Buildings and Cities	2.19	$932.30	$325.10
62	Women Smallholders	Women and Girls	2.06	N/A	$87.60
63	Telepresence	Transport	1.99	$127.72	$1,310.59
64	Methane Digesters (Small)	Electricity Generation	1.9	$15.50	$13.90
65	Nutrient Management	Food	1.81	N/A	$102.32
66	High-speed Rail	Transport	1.52	$1,038.42	$368.10
67	Farmland Irrigation	Food	1.33	$216.16	$429.67
68	Waste-to-Energy	Electricity Generation	1.1	$36.00	$19.82
69	Electric Bikes	Transport	0.96	$106.75	$226.07
70	Recycled Paper	Materials	0.9	$573.48	N/A
71	Water Distribution	Buildings and Cities	0.87	$137.37	$903.11
72	Biochar	Food	0.81	N/A	N/A
73	Green Roofs	Buildings and Cities	0.77	$1,393.29	$988.46
74	Trains	Transport	0.52	$808.64	$313.86
75	Ridesharing	Transport	0.32	N/A	$185.56
76	Micro Wind	Electricity Generation	0.2	$36.12	$19.90
77	Energy Storage (Distributed)*	Electricity Generation	N/A	N/A	N/A
77	Energy Storage (Utilities)*	Electricity Generation	N/A	N/A	N/A
77	Grid Flexibility*	Electricity Generation	N/A	N/A	N/A
78	Microgrids	Electricity Generation	N/A	N/A	N/A
79	Net Zero Buildings	Buildings and Cities	N/A	N/A	N/A
80	Retrofitting	Buildings and Cities	N/A	N/A	N/A
		Sum of top initiatives	1,050.99	29,609.30	74,362.37
Source: Paul Hawken (Ed.), 2017, retrieved from www.DrawDown.org.
* Note. Energy Storage and Grid are ranked 77, but represent 3 options, so 82 entries are in this list.