Obama’s Climate Policy Is a Hot Mess - WSJ

Obama’s Climate Policy Is a Hot Mess - WSJ:

Bjorn Lomborg may have been best know for his massive tomb of a book entitled The Skeptical Environmentalist. Lomborg (2007) in The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World "may be the best source for reviewing the facts about quality of life, global
warming, and the optimal approaches for addressing the issues." (Hall, Taylor, Zapalski, & Hall, 2009, p. 5)

Apparently he has since gone off to consult for oil & gas interest. That's not all bad, but it does mean that he may not be unbiased as seemed to be the case during his Skeptical days.

Bjorn talks about, essentially, the bang for the buck ($US, in this case). The current Obama plan doesn't do much to move the global warming needle, especially given the costs. On the one hand, Obama will say that we have to start somewhere. In this case, and in several others, Bjorn simply says that this won't do much good. A smart guy like that should suggest better alternatives.

We, at SBPlan, argue that there are two monster places to start. AND neither requires the special help of government, really. Both are energy efficiency (EE) focused. Two EE business models that SBP especially likes are related to telecommuting using remote work centers and a pay-forward model
of promoting energy efficiency in all buildings – residential, commercial and
government. Since both of these initiatives save money, they offer a special win-win-win of sustainability (Employees, Employers and Environment, in this case).

I'm a little disappointing that Bjorn has been simply complaining about the expense and the likely lack of success from various government initiatives, not offering up his own recommendations. It's easy to complain and stop progress, but I give no respect to someone who does not offer up better alternatives. In the case of our non-sustainable practices of energy, the olde business as usual (BAU) model is a failed business model; it is only a matter of time for this living beyond our means model of existence will come crashing down.

Bjorn offers up more research, presumably to make renewables more affordable. And touts the Fracking-NatGas revolutions as a massive windfall for reducing our pollution and greenhouse gases away from coal. NatGas is both good and bad; it shifts us away from really dirty energy associated with coal. Yeah!:-) But it reduced the costs and availability of all oil, gas and coal such that we may have tagged on another 50 years worth of fossil fuels to global economies before we really start to run low(er) and basic economics starts to really solves our addiction to fossil fuels. 

If you read Bjorn's Skeptical Environmentalist, you will find that he totally believes that there is global warming and that man is a big (?major?) contributor. When you read this book you will agree, even before including the 10 record hot years since he published in 2007. What he does say, forcefully then, and now, is that we need to focus on the efforts that will result the move benefits. Huge government spending on reducing CO2, especially in developing countries, may have little, none, or even negative results. 

Bjorn ended up in a big tiff over the 2007 book Skeptical Environmentalist. If it was an opinion piece then it would be okay to take the liberties that he did with interpreting the results; but as a scientific book, he had gone way to far. The  Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty (DCSD) in Bjorn's home country, charged him with academic dishonesty in the book. This ruling went against Bjorn. On appeal the charge of scientific dishonesty was sent back for a do-over, where it stalled out.

Bjorg's follow Skeptical Environmentalist book(s) have titles that start with "Cool it!", concentrating on what to do that will likely have the most (short-term) benefits. 

Bjorg, don't just complain in op-eds about Obama and the other 200 countries who signed the Paris greenhouse deal this April (agreed to in Dec 2015). The average person reading this op-ed would think that we all should do nothing and wait for Bill Gates Foundation to find a cure. Give people real suggestions for actions. Or, are you simply trying to sell your books and consulting?

References

Hall, E., Taylor, S., Zapalski, C., & Hall, T.
(2009). Sustainability in education: Green in the facilities, but not in the
classrooms. Proceedings of the Society for Advancement of Management,
USA.

Lomborg, Bjorn. (2007). The skeptical environmentalist: Measuring the real state of the world. NY:
Cambridge University Press.

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Cleaning up our garbage patch takes a 21 year old

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/06/28/3792829/ocean-clean-up-project-unveiled/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cptop3&utm_term=1&utm_content=22

Cleaning up our (garbage patch) act is going to take some work.  It takes a 21 year old... see the refs to new studies. 700 pieces of plastic in the ocean for every man woman and child on Earth! And the problem is, that there will never be an end to the plastic until we stop producing it and shipping it off to Sea...

Everyone being simply more aware of the problem, that's actually a good start as well.

State of the Profession 2016 | GreenBiz

State of the Profession 2016 | GreenBiz:

They dynamics of Sustainability professionals, like Chief Sustainability Officers (CSOs), has had amazing change over the last 10 years.

This report is impressive in so many ways. One is that CSR and sustainability are merging. Another is that both seem to be merged (embedded) into the divisions of organizations.

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To Eat or Knot to eat Knot Weed - WSJ

Pittsburgh Tries to Eat Its Way Through a Savage Weed - WSJ:

What do you do, with Kudzu?

Invasives like kudzu and Japanese Knotweed, can take over square miles. They really go wild in strip mines and disturbed areas, and completely take over. Once started, the weed pushes out anything and everything in the surrounding areas -- an ugly mono-culture that disrupts entire ecosystems much like Melaleuca has done in Southern Florida.

Melaleuca trees transplanted to Florida to attempt to dry up the Everglades is not the same type that is found in herbs, incense  and oils. Ours tree apparently burn toxic, so firewood is out. One of the best uses of it is to make mulch... A rather cool business model where there's an endless supply, and land owners will typically pay you to take it. Getting paid twice for the same job, land owners and customers, while doing a good turn for the environment and society, has got to feel both good and green.

One of the best uses of kudzu, that invasive vine that has taken over the South (all the way down through Georgia), is to feed it to goats. Goats will eat anything. Once they eat all the kudzu in a field, they simply have to rest a while while it grows back.

Eating Knotweed is an interesting idea. It tastes a little like chicken, oops, no, that's an invasive animal. It apparently tastes somewhat like rhubarb. There is a limit to how much garnish people are willing to eat, however. I'm not sure that we could get everyone in the US to eat a couple helpings of rhubarb each day. Knotweed might require three helpings a day.

Unfortunately, knotweed often grows in disturbed soils like river banks and spent strip mines where the quality of the soil is not only poor, but often semi-polluted. Metals and heavy metals from coal dust/mines will make many knotweed harvests non-nutritious, at best. Modestly toxic at worst.

One of the best uses of knotweed would probably be biomass uses that go directly to incinerate, or are processed into ethanol. But, yet another kick in the pants: transporting knotweed  to the refinery/incinerator when in bloom, will spread the seed of invasion into fresh new virgin territories.

The weed is easily propagated from "cuttings" so 4-wheelers or trucks can readily spread the weed to places where it is not.

As with most (all?) invasives, this is a gift that keeps on giving.

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A Song Of Fire And No Ice: We Just Had Our Fourth Record-Breaking Hottest Month In A Row This Year | ThinkProgress

A Song Of Fire And No Ice: We Just Had Our Fourth Record-Breaking Hottest Month In A Row This Year | ThinkProgress:

Oh poop, crap, scat!.

Each month of 2016 has been a record hot month. (Even though 2015 was wicked record hot with 10 months matching or exceeding record highs!)

April blew past the last record in 2015 by a mile or two (+0.28 C or +0.43 F). [See NASA summary data here. Note that you have to go back to 1992 to find the first negative monthly number (-1) below average, and much further to the 1970s to find a year with a good spattering of negative numbers (below the mean).]

If the first quarter holds true in predicting the full year, 2016 will take us to about +1.3 d C, almost three-forths of the way to that magical +2 d Centigrade that so many scientist warn we need to stay away from.

Good news, we'll be able to navigate the north pole by boat & barge form months this year. China's gonna love that, avoiding the Panama Canal.

The early thaw and dry conditions results in ugly fire conditions as demonstrated by the Alberta fires.

Ironically, the fires caused by global warming, aggravate and accentuate the very factors that cause -- you guessed it, global warming.

And, in a double irony, the oil sands have a very heavy carbon footprint and environmental footprint. (Do a Google search on Alberta "Oil Sands before and after".)  Visit Canadian TV News to look at McMurray fires.

Fire and no ice!.

Hot. Sad, True.

Poop!:-(

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The Volusia County Water Summit – Stetson Today

The Volusia County Water Summit – Stetson Today:

The water summit discussed here, turned out to be a rather big event. Really good information & analysis. The right people thinking about the right issues.

It seems that everyone agreed to do something about improving water management and water quality in the county. Although this is a non-binding agreement among the players, it is a really big step forward.

Once everyone realizes those few areas where most of the efforts should be focused, it really helps get a concerted effort from all of the players, private, public and individuals.

When we have these wicked algae blooms, that demonstrates a massive overshoot of what our waterways can handle. Such blooms cause problems all the way out to the reefs, accelerating the reef kill-off that has already been accelerating from record warm temperatures and increase acidification.

The quality of life as we know it, is being eroded by the quality of our water and waterways.

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A single round (1 round) Delphi study. Conundrum of HR – Scenario Plans

A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (:

Give a look at the two blogs related to Scenario plans and Delphi studies related to the 2007 research by Dr. Cheryl Lentz. Notice how Delphi-type research can be used for all kinds of studies.

These are two blog posts. One on the actual Delphi research doing two things that make it a modified Delphi: 1 round, and quantitative.

The second post is

The Conundrum of middle management, HR experts and Delphi research.

We love Delphi for scenario planning and a mechanism for innovation. But scenario planning is absolutely critical for sustainability planning. 

See what you think?

Keywords: Scenario Plans, Horizon Planning, innovation, Delphi, Future, innovation, perpetual innovation, 

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Lagoon faces unprecedented peril | News-JournalOnline.com

Lagoon faces unprecedented peril | News-JournalOnline.com:

Henderson does a great job of addressing the issues, the sources of the problems and various solutions.

Volusia County is not alone in dealing with these problems. Tampa Bay, St Lucy and more have similar problems. Lawns and septic tanks are mentioned. Many people have their lawns on automatic, so it gets irrigated, rain or shine, winter or summer. They want to have beautiful green lawns year round in Florida. Especially in the rainy season, the fertilizer washes off so they add even more.

Fertilizing at the right time, and careful water management is critical to avoiding all of the runoff of fertilizer. Systems are starting to get really smart, in fact, by sensing the moisture in the ground and checking weather forecasts. No need to water if it is likely to rain tomorrow.

But what do you do with people who won't be proactive in water management. In Florida, you have snow birds who are gone a lot. Renters who are less attentive and vacant houses.

Septic is another issue. Passing a law that everyone has to have it pumped and inspected every couple years is overkill. Probe tests are ineffective, the last I heard, so opening it and pumping it, is the only sure way. And moving to a mandatory municipal service has lots of problems.

In most of these areas, it seems that a combination of carrot and stick must be used.

And that's just two of the sources. There's Ag, industrial, traffic, boating and other sources of pollutants.

At the source types of remedies are always easiest. Identifying the biggest issues and concentrating on those big issues and are actionable is a critical place to start.

Imagine that almost every community everywhere (Flint, Michigan) is have medium to major water issues. Droughts, floods, contaminants, and aging water systems.

There are some good sources on the topic(s):

• Out of water: From abundance to scarcity and how to solve the world's water problems by Chartres and Varma (2011).
• Aqua Shock: The water crisis in America by Marks (2009)
• World Water Day (at UN): http://www.unwater.org/worldwaterday 

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ECO:nomics | The Wall Street Journal

ECO:nomics | The Wall Street Journal:

The WSJ's big forum on ECOnomics seems to have been a great learning and sharing session for divergent ideas on how to blend economic growth/development with environmental needs.

A special report in the WSJ on Wed, April 13, 2016 offers several takes and interviews covering the spectrum of associated topics.

A couple base statistics are that coal generated electricity has dropped from half of all US generation to less than 1/3 within about 10 years. The big gain is Nat Gas, but that too is changing. In 2015 solar was the #1 install base with 9.5 gw (37% of new), NatGas 8 gw (31%), wind 6.8 gw (26%). Only 4% new nuclear and fractions of other.

Related to the switch from coal to NatGas, this is only a stop-gap measure: moving from one really bad non-renewable, coal; to a relatively better non-renewable, NatGas. Michael Brune from the Sierra Club comments on the methane and other issues that brings NatGas closer to parody with coal (really ugly vs. relatively ugly).

Coal is really taking a hit, as Peabody goes bankrupt this week, bringing down all of the big coal companies. No victory laps here; the pain and suffering in the mining communities is going to be horrendous. (Also, bankruptcy doesn't mean the mines will all stop, just that the debt associated with the companies will replace the equity positions.)

Even against crashing oil/coal prices, solar & wind are winning major solid footing. Even with the likelihood of subsidies going away, are now starting to be very price competitive (especially if you consider externality costs). BUT when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine (night) we still need regular power generation. Or battery-type storage.

You have to marvel at the gain of renewables during the second year of record low fossil fuel costs. That is really, really impressive.

Check out all the articles on the ECOnomics conference and interviews at the special business & energy section of the WSJ: http://www.wsj.com/news/types/journal-reports-energy

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Study Confirms World's Coastal Cities Unsavable If We Don't Slash Carbon Pollution | ThinkProgress

Study Confirms World's Coastal Cities Unsavable If We Don't Slash Carbon Pollution | ThinkProgress:

This article discusses the melt-off of Antarctica as discussed in a new Nature article. They did a better and more detailed analysis of the volume of water that would move into oceans as the Antarctic melts. They resolved a few of the issues that were not fully addressed by other studies. In addition to the models of ice volume/dynamics, they compared current warming with other times in history, thus offering benchmarks for validating their analysis.

Even as many areas of Antarctica have been collapsing at an alarming rate, there has also been evidence of the snow building in the center of the (island? of Antarctica). This Nature study seems to resolve these apparent inconsistencies. They build a strong argument that we need to do a LOT now, not later. Many coastal cities will partially or totally under water if we continue for several more decades under the old business-as-usual model of carbon emissions.

DeConto and Pollard (2016) in their article Contribution of Antarctica to Past and Future Sea-Level Rise look at ice dynamics to better analyze the volume of ice that should be displaced into the ocean waters as temperatures rise. They ran models under business-as-usual and more aggressive action scenarios. Then, they paired their results with key times in history where temperatures where high and sea-levels rose.

They concluded that a likely scenario if we delay action is 1 meter (3.28 ft.)  of sea-level rise by end of century and 15 meters (~50 ft) by 2500 that would be attributable to antarctic ice melt. Add thermal expansion and other factors and this represents an ugly, ugly prospect.

Reference

DeConto, R. M., & Pollard, D. (2016). Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature, 531(7596), 591–597. doi:10.1038/nature17145

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